• I think that this actually misses one of the most important things of Trump's foreign policy: his repeated insistence that alllies pay their fair share of the US defense umbrella. Given an increasingly accommodation-focused Taiwan, asking them to pay for their own defense could simply result in them not paying. At that point, the US would have to leave a vital threat against Chinese military action behind, moving that part of the fleet elsewhere in Southeast Asia. That will in turn encourage Chinese expansionism. Combined with opposition to the TPP, a Japanese economy that can't seem to function, and an Australian trend towards engagement with Asia, I think we'd be reasonably likely to point to the Trump Presidency as the turning point when China became ruler of its region.