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I am Saar.  (Saar Gur)

I am Saar. (Saar Gur)

Personal community.

26 members
Posted bySaarin/i_am_saar_saar_gur-Jul 13, 2016 at 1:03 PM

"Don't mistake a clear view for a short distance."

One of my favorite quotes from Paul Saffo about making predictions. Also relevant for me this week as I have been hiking with my wife. :-)

Comments12
  • SaicredJul 13, 2016 at 1:06 PM

    Never heard that before... I really like it.

  • DanJul 13, 2016 at 1:08 PMΔ

    I'm guessing that you're putting this into a business context, specifically with early stage startups. Is this something that you see a lot of startups struggle with?

    • SaarJul 13, 2016 at 1:51 PMΔ

      thanks for the question Dan. I find the quote is often used to explain how people in silicon valley get really excited when a new technology is created (e.g., bitcoin) and they think that the world is going to adopt the tech immediately...and it usually takes 10+ years from the hype to mainstream adoption. Many companies make the mistake of betting on a tech trend too early...so yes...I think this quote is relevant to them. :-)

      • DanJul 13, 2016 at 1:52 PMΔ

        Except pokemon, everyone loves pokemon right away.

      • SaarJul 13, 2016 at 1:56 PMΔ

        :-) hmm...not sure...folks were excited about location based games for over 15 years (including Dennis Crowley's Dodgeball)...and it took years before we saw a mass adopted location based mobile game actually take off....many startups have died before Pokemon because it seemed obvious consumers would like it.

      • ifindkarmaJul 13, 2016 at 3:20 PMΔ

        That's true, we haven't really seen a phenomenon like Pokemon Go before.

        Niantic's previous games were well received but they did not have this kind of massive engagement. Everything before this prepared them for this opportunity, though.

  • ifindkarmaJul 13, 2016 at 3:24 PM

    I like that you've been hiking. I should go hiking.

    Thank you for the quote, Saar.

  • ChurchillJul 13, 2016 at 1:26 PMΔ

    Do you find it equally troubling that people thing they have a clear view when they really don't?

    • SaarJul 13, 2016 at 1:54 PMΔ

      great question. Many great founders see a version of the future (a view) that is non-obvious and correct...and they tend to be outliers. Many founders see a version of the future that is non-obvious and wrong...and we often don't hear much about them. But many trends seem to have consensus (obvious) but the timing/adoption of them often takes much longer than people planned. Some entrepreneurs are able to meet the market where it is today and also play the long-game to adapt with technology trends and adoption. I think Reed Hastings and the building of Netflix is an amazing story of this product (from DVD to streaming). To answer your question more directly...I don't find it troubling as those who are wrong do find out sooner vs. later in most cases. :-)

      • ifindkarmaJul 13, 2016 at 3:22 PMΔ

        Timing seems like the hardest thing.

        For example: We all know AI, deep learning, and bots will be huge, and lots have invested in hundreds of companies, even though we are clearly early. When will the big breakthroughs come? No one knows.

      • SaarJul 13, 2016 at 3:25 PMΔ

        read some Paul Saffo for some clues... :-) here is a great high level overview of his: https://hbr.org/2007/07/six-rules-for-effective-forecasting

      • ifindkarmaJul 13, 2016 at 3:30 PM

        That is a great article!

        Paul himself is humble enough to recognize that forecasting has limitations:

        Against this backdrop, it is important to note that there are moments when forecasting is comparatively easy—and other moments when it is impossible. The cone of uncertainty is not static; it expands and contracts as the present rolls into the future and certain possibilities come to pass while others are closed off. There are thus moments of unprecedented uncertainty when the cone broadens to a point at which the wise forecaster will demur and refrain from making a forecast at all. But even in such a moment, one can take comfort in the knowledge that things will soon settle down, and with the careful exercise of intuition, it will once again be possible to make a good forecast.

        So there are things we can do to make timing more likely.

        But timing is still the hardest thing with emerging technologies.

        You posted a good article about tech waves from Danny Crichton that reinforced this for me, too.

I am Saar.  (Saar Gur)

I am Saar. (Saar Gur)

Personal community.

26 members
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