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History Suggests The Democrats Won't Stay In the Wilderness
History Suggests The Democrats Won't Stay In the Wilderness
After Tuesday's election results, Democrats lost the White House and remained a minority in Congress and in state legislative chambers. Their appointees to the Supreme Court are likely to remain in the minority for years to come. But history suggests that parties this deep in the political wilderness don't remain there for long.
fivethirtyeight.com




Not just history, look at the news. Already, progressives are rallying around winning the mid terms, no matter how hard that will be. It didn't take long either, I was seeing people talking about it a day after the election. Hell, people are already planning 2020 and Trump hasn't even been inaugurated yet.
I'd be very afraid if I was the RNC. Trump is not popular, will not be popular, and they are not setting up a very popular platform. It's a set up for a surprise upset in the mid terms, as well as losses at the state level.
The problem is that most of the seats up for election during the midterms are dem seats, I believe. Only a handful of republican seats. I'd have to research this to double check, but I recall seeing that somewhere reputable.
Looks like 8 of 33 seats up for election are in R states.
The house is all up for grabs every 2 years. It's a 23-8-2 split for dem and rep senators, with two independents. The chances for upsets in the senate are limited to Nevada and perhaps hatch losing his seat in Utah if a moderate anti-trump republican runs with no opposing democrat. Also, sanders is running in Vermont again, and he is pretty much a shoo in with his popularity, so all he needs to do is register dem and he will get to add one to the seat count.
It will be hard, and it will be determined by how hard the dems fight to keep power, undermine trump's supporting base, and how aggressively they push for state control. But it is winnable, which is good.
Thanks for the details! I was mostly thinking of the senate, but yeah even those few seats would be good to get. And the house is still super important.
I didn't realize he never did this. I assumed he did in order to run as a democrat for president.
I think he unregistered after he lost. Seeing the changes in the DNC makes me think he will re register. Still all speculation at this point, though.
I hope so. I plan to work for whoever is running in my state on the dem ticket in two years social anxiety be damned.